I don’t place AI so far out. I would be surprised if it took longer than 30 years. I think where we differ is for estimates on how hard genetic engineering is.
It’s true we haven’t had any success genetically engineering human intelligence. Nonetheless the tools we now have available are much more powerful. We simply couldn’t do Genome Wide Association Studies until recently, and still don’t quite have the ability to do them on huge scales. But it’s very likely that within just a couple of years million person studies will be happening.
It’s possible that such studies won’t turn up much. It’s also possible that huge numbers of alleles will be identified with statistically significant effects on IQ.
As Carl mentioned, constructing artificial gametes is also currently a limiting factor. But there is clearly a lot of work happening here. Craig Venter’s group, for instance, just constructed and rebooted the first artificial genome. That genome was much shorter than a human genome, of course, but it’s clear the fundamental idea is sound.
In my opinion these are the only two missing ingredients. That is: successful genome wide studies and the technology to make artificial gametes.
If these ingredients become available in the next couple of years, then it seems likely that large numbers of very smart adults will be around in about 25 years. Just in time to potentially make a huge difference in AI research.
I put a decent chunk of probability mass on AI occurring in less than 25 years, in which case none of this would matter. But I also put a decent chunk on 25+ years, and likewise a very good chunk on successful genetic engineering in the next 5 years (which, again, is where I think the core of our disagreement is).
I don’t place AI so far out. I would be surprised if it took longer than 30 years. I think where we differ is for estimates on how hard genetic engineering is.
It’s true we haven’t had any success genetically engineering human intelligence. Nonetheless the tools we now have available are much more powerful. We simply couldn’t do Genome Wide Association Studies until recently, and still don’t quite have the ability to do them on huge scales. But it’s very likely that within just a couple of years million person studies will be happening.
It’s possible that such studies won’t turn up much. It’s also possible that huge numbers of alleles will be identified with statistically significant effects on IQ.
As Carl mentioned, constructing artificial gametes is also currently a limiting factor. But there is clearly a lot of work happening here. Craig Venter’s group, for instance, just constructed and rebooted the first artificial genome. That genome was much shorter than a human genome, of course, but it’s clear the fundamental idea is sound.
In my opinion these are the only two missing ingredients. That is: successful genome wide studies and the technology to make artificial gametes.
If these ingredients become available in the next couple of years, then it seems likely that large numbers of very smart adults will be around in about 25 years. Just in time to potentially make a huge difference in AI research.
I put a decent chunk of probability mass on AI occurring in less than 25 years, in which case none of this would matter. But I also put a decent chunk on 25+ years, and likewise a very good chunk on successful genetic engineering in the next 5 years (which, again, is where I think the core of our disagreement is).