“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” isn’t a good heuristic if you expect that your brain isn’t good at figuring out what things are extraordinary. Bayes isn’t a good framework if you expect that your brain isn’t good at updating correctly. In general, if you aren’t very smart, don’t have unusual goals, and the people around you aren’t crazy, you might be better off doing what comes naturally.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” isn’t a good heuristic if you expect that your brain isn’t good at figuring out what things are extraordinary. Bayes isn’t a good framework if you expect that your brain isn’t good at updating correctly. In general, if you aren’t very smart, don’t have unusual goals, and the people around you aren’t crazy, you might be better off doing what comes naturally.