Great point. I had come to a similar conclusion a while back, and Googled around to see if others had come up with the idea.
I came across this post by Robin Hanson:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/its-news-on-academia-not-climate.html
(see the last two paras, and note he links to some people critiquing his idea in the last sentence).
I might discuss the possibilities for prediction markets in a later post.
Great point. I had come to a similar conclusion a while back, and Googled around to see if others had come up with the idea.
I came across this post by Robin Hanson:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/its-news-on-academia-not-climate.html
(see the last two paras, and note he links to some people critiquing his idea in the last sentence).
I might discuss the possibilities for prediction markets in a later post.