But ethics is not philosophy. It is actually a math problem.
Engineering. (You’re also making assumptions about shoulds, which might not hold in general, but I don’t think I disagree with here.**)
Any other action but taking the one with the highest expected value (factoring in variance), is UNETHICAL.
Variance and /knowledge. I.e. maximize expected value (optimize!*), /or minimize risk from being incorrect (robust!).
*As it is commonly used.
**What is right, may be a complicated question. Less people dying, though—this seems right. Though I haven’t done a cost benefit analysis. And maybe those ethicists didn’t either.
Engineering. (You’re also making assumptions about shoulds, which might not hold in general, but I don’t think I disagree with here.**)
Variance and /knowledge. I.e. maximize expected value (optimize!*), /or minimize risk from being incorrect (robust!).
*As it is commonly used.
**What is right, may be a complicated question. Less people dying, though—this seems right. Though I haven’t done a cost benefit analysis. And maybe those ethicists didn’t either.