FDA Dr. Peter Marks’s reply either indicates his own misunderstanding or that something is wrong with the FDA report! In Table 15 of the FDA’s Moderna report, they report efficacy “in Participants Who Only Received One Dose” (emphasis added and the N’s are correctly not the full trial’s N). 80% (95% CI: 55%, 93%) is a nice round number to tell people, but also we assess two-dose efficacy only after 14 days anyway, so the truly comparable number is 92% (95% CI: 69%, 99%).
Now if there are other reasons we shouldn’t trust those numbers, I’d love to see them. They caveat it with it’s not necessarily 80+% effective forever since they only observed single-dosers for a median of 28 days, and the N is definitely lower but still 1000 per group (which is why the confidence intervals are wide). But that gives us pretty high confidence that 14 days after the first dose, the vaccine is effective enough to warrant JABS IN ARMS!
FDA Dr. Peter Marks’s reply either indicates his own misunderstanding or that something is wrong with the FDA report! In Table 15 of the FDA’s Moderna report, they report efficacy “in Participants Who Only Received One Dose” (emphasis added and the N’s are correctly not the full trial’s N). 80% (95% CI: 55%, 93%) is a nice round number to tell people, but also we assess two-dose efficacy only after 14 days anyway, so the truly comparable number is 92% (95% CI: 69%, 99%).
Now if there are other reasons we shouldn’t trust those numbers, I’d love to see them. They caveat it with it’s not necessarily 80+% effective forever since they only observed single-dosers for a median of 28 days, and the N is definitely lower but still 1000 per group (which is why the confidence intervals are wide). But that gives us pretty high confidence that 14 days after the first dose, the vaccine is effective enough to warrant JABS IN ARMS!