I wondered how that would look translated into a delay. The number of doses given through January 13 equals the number of doses that had been distributed __ days earlier.
I see from the graph titled “The US COVID-19 Vaccine Shortfall” (and introduced with “We can start with how it’s gone so far:”) that the answer is about 17 days.
This seems like a more natural framing—it matches the process of why many doses haven’t been given yet, and it seems likely to be more stable as we project the curves forward over many weeks (and less dependent on the shape of the ‘doses distributed’ curve).
So now I’m wondering if the delay (now 17 days) is likely to get smaller over time, or larger, or stay about the same.
When I read this bit:
I wondered how that would look translated into a delay. The number of doses given through January 13 equals the number of doses that had been distributed __ days earlier.
I see from the graph titled “The US COVID-19 Vaccine Shortfall” (and introduced with “We can start with how it’s gone so far:”) that the answer is about 17 days.
This seems like a more natural framing—it matches the process of why many doses haven’t been given yet, and it seems likely to be more stable as we project the curves forward over many weeks (and less dependent on the shape of the ‘doses distributed’ curve).
So now I’m wondering if the delay (now 17 days) is likely to get smaller over time, or larger, or stay about the same.