I’m confused. In theory, $50k currently invested in VTI could also go to any of those values.
Yeah, I could do with more explanation here too. I see that ‘EMH implies 50-50 odds’ is clearly false, and not only because of the risk premium. And I see why bitcoin could be a great buy with a 50% chance of outperforming the stock market. But I don’t see why it obviously would be.
It definitely seems more volatile, but why couldn’t a sensible person judge that it is:
much more likely than the stock market to crater to ~0
more likely than the stock market to rise dramatically
only negligibly (if at all) more likely than the stock market to rise to insanely high levels
and that this all nets out to a ~50% chance of outperforming the stock market, and also an EV similar to (or less than) that of an index fund?
Yeah, I could do with more explanation here too. I see that ‘EMH implies 50-50 odds’ is clearly false, and not only because of the risk premium. And I see why bitcoin could be a great buy with a 50% chance of outperforming the stock market. But I don’t see why it obviously would be.
It definitely seems more volatile, but why couldn’t a sensible person judge that it is:
much more likely than the stock market to crater to ~0
more likely than the stock market to rise dramatically
only negligibly (if at all) more likely than the stock market to rise to insanely high levels
and that this all nets out to a ~50% chance of outperforming the stock market, and also an EV similar to (or less than) that of an index fund?