trade to just use the info Metaculus provides to inform your trades elsewhere?
Well, no. If you can’t trade directly in a way that moves the price, it’s likely that OTHERS also have information that it’s wrong and couldn’t move the price. So the market information is far more likely to be correct than the Metaculus information.
Well, no. If you can’t trade directly in a way that moves the price, it’s likely that OTHERS also have information that it’s wrong and couldn’t move the price. So the market information is far more likely to be correct than the Metaculus information.
If you can’t middle, it’s not arbitrage.