So you are assuming that in the future you will be forced to act on the belief that the probability can’t be something other than 0 or 1⁄2 even though in the future you will know that the probability will almost certainly be something other than 0 or 1⁄2.
But isn’t this the same as assuming that in the future you will forget that your choices had been limited to zero and 1/2?
Hrm, I think you might be ignoring the cost of actually doing the calculations, unless I’m missing something. The value of simplifying assumptions comes from how much easier it makes a situation to model. I guess the question would be, is the effort saved in modeling this thing with an approximation rather than exact figures worth the risks of modeling this thing with an approximation rather than exact figures? Especially if you have to do many models like this, or model a lot of other factors as well. Such as trying to sort out what are the best ways to spend your time overall, including possibly meteorite preparations.
So you are assuming that in the future you will be forced to act on the belief that the probability can’t be something other than 0 or 1⁄2 even though in the future you will know that the probability will almost certainly be something other than 0 or 1⁄2.
But isn’t this the same as assuming that in the future you will forget that your choices had been limited to zero and 1/2?
Hrm, I think you might be ignoring the cost of actually doing the calculations, unless I’m missing something. The value of simplifying assumptions comes from how much easier it makes a situation to model. I guess the question would be, is the effort saved in modeling this thing with an approximation rather than exact figures worth the risks of modeling this thing with an approximation rather than exact figures? Especially if you have to do many models like this, or model a lot of other factors as well. Such as trying to sort out what are the best ways to spend your time overall, including possibly meteorite preparations.