Why do you call that “signaling”? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don’t have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn’t a problem.
I don’t know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
Why do you call that “signaling”? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
Because you’re going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you’re measuring for (forecasting ability).
I don’t know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts—but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.
Why do you call that “signaling”? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
I don’t know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
Because you’re going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you’re measuring for (forecasting ability).
I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts—but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.