“Sebastian, the agreement would have to obligate the estate or descendants of a 50-year-old who wanted to bet on 2080. Again, the main objective is to let people put their money where their mouth is—let Kurzweil bet against Hofstadter’s “more than 100 years to AI” pronouncement, even if the payoff is made by Kurzweil’s estate to Hofstadter’s estate (do they have kids)?”
Surely a bet obligating one’s estate (beyond the reach of most of the incentive effects of near-term bets) won’t add much value over this:
“Sebastian, the agreement would have to obligate the estate or descendants of a 50-year-old who wanted to bet on 2080. Again, the main objective is to let people put their money where their mouth is—let Kurzweil bet against Hofstadter’s “more than 100 years to AI” pronouncement, even if the payoff is made by Kurzweil’s estate to Hofstadter’s estate (do they have kids)?”
Surely a bet obligating one’s estate (beyond the reach of most of the incentive effects of near-term bets) won’t add much value over this:
http://www.longbets.org/1