I did have some probability mass on AI boxing being relevant. And I still have some probability mass that there will be sudden recursive self-improvement. But I also had significant probability mass on AI being economically important, and therefore very visible. And with an acceleration of progress, I thought many people would be concerned about it. I don’t know as I would’ve predicted a particular chat-gpt moment (I probably would have guessed some large AI accident), but the point is that we should have been ready for a case when the public/governments became concerned about AI. I think the fact that there were some AI governance efforts before chat-gpt was due in large part to the people saying there could be slow take off, like Paul.
I did have some probability mass on AI boxing being relevant. And I still have some probability mass that there will be sudden recursive self-improvement. But I also had significant probability mass on AI being economically important, and therefore very visible. And with an acceleration of progress, I thought many people would be concerned about it. I don’t know as I would’ve predicted a particular chat-gpt moment (I probably would have guessed some large AI accident), but the point is that we should have been ready for a case when the public/governments became concerned about AI. I think the fact that there were some AI governance efforts before chat-gpt was due in large part to the people saying there could be slow take off, like Paul.