How easy it is for someone else to be able to make predictions about your actions depends on the way you make decisions.
If you make a decisions based on making a Fermi estimate and then using Bayes theorem a person who has no idea about Fermi estimates or Bayes theorem won’t be able to predict your actions. If you have integrated those concepts into your life so that you use them constantly than even a person who has learned Bayes theorem in an university lecture is unlikely to be able to follow. For them it’s just something abstract that’s used for text book problems and they will have a really hard time to predict your actions, because the can’t model you in a way that includes Bayes theorem.
If I make a decisions based on emotions my somatics teacher might be able to predict my actions better then myself because she has a better perception of my emotional state then I have. If I make my decisions based on an abstract intellectual concept like Bayes theorem then she can’t predict the outcomes. From her perspective I’m in my head and she has no information besides that.
Outside of specific primitives if you play a game two levels higher than the other person you are unpredictable.
Is that the main spirit of it or is there something I missed?
It goes beyond that. If you show a person who beliefs that vaccine causes autism a news article with lists scientific arguments that vaccines doesn’t cause autism, you can strengthen their beliefs that vaccines cause autism.
Mormons who go on a mission and debate Mormonism with outsiders get often more committed Mormons because they invest effort into defending their beliefs to outsiders.
We live in a world where people found in a study that people of higher intelligence are more likely to disbelieve in global warming.
In Go strategy there the term aji keshi. Defending a belief makes it more rigid.
If I try to open a door today and do badly at it, that door while be fortified in a month and it’s even harder to get in.
If you successfully planted a little carrot and then pull strongly on it before it’s ready you kill it.
How easy it is for someone else to be able to make predictions about your actions depends on the way you make decisions.
If you make a decisions based on making a Fermi estimate and then using Bayes theorem a person who has no idea about Fermi estimates or Bayes theorem won’t be able to predict your actions. If you have integrated those concepts into your life so that you use them constantly than even a person who has learned Bayes theorem in an university lecture is unlikely to be able to follow. For them it’s just something abstract that’s used for text book problems and they will have a really hard time to predict your actions, because the can’t model you in a way that includes Bayes theorem.
If I make a decisions based on emotions my somatics teacher might be able to predict my actions better then myself because she has a better perception of my emotional state then I have. If I make my decisions based on an abstract intellectual concept like Bayes theorem then she can’t predict the outcomes. From her perspective I’m in my head and she has no information besides that.
Outside of specific primitives if you play a game two levels higher than the other person you are unpredictable.
It goes beyond that. If you show a person who beliefs that vaccine causes autism a news article with lists scientific arguments that vaccines doesn’t cause autism, you can strengthen their beliefs that vaccines cause autism.
Mormons who go on a mission and debate Mormonism with outsiders get often more committed Mormons because they invest effort into defending their beliefs to outsiders.
We live in a world where people found in a study that people of higher intelligence are more likely to disbelieve in global warming.
In Go strategy there the term aji keshi. Defending a belief makes it more rigid.
If I try to open a door today and do badly at it, that door while be fortified in a month and it’s even harder to get in.
If you successfully planted a little carrot and then pull strongly on it before it’s ready you kill it.