What could I show you that would convince you of the latter?
A valid heuristic that comes to the conclusion that you want to convince me off. In this case your claim that moving from non-self -modifying AI to self -modifying AI is no qualitative leap in the same way that solving most current well-defined AI problems is no qualitative leap suggests that you aren’t reasoning clearly.
If you get the easy things wrong, then the harder things are also more likely to be wrong.
Furthermore there a strong prior that you are wrong about estimating probabilities if you aren’t calibrated. It been shown that naive attempt to try to correct against the hindsight bias just don’t work.
Until you have at least trained calibration a bit you aren’t in a good position to judge whether other people are off.
A valid heuristic that comes to the conclusion that you want to convince me off. In this case your claim that moving from non-self -modifying AI to self -modifying AI is no qualitative leap in the same way that solving most current well-defined AI problems is no qualitative leap suggests that you aren’t reasoning clearly. If you get the easy things wrong, then the harder things are also more likely to be wrong.
Furthermore there a strong prior that you are wrong about estimating probabilities if you aren’t calibrated. It been shown that naive attempt to try to correct against the hindsight bias just don’t work. Until you have at least trained calibration a bit you aren’t in a good position to judge whether other people are off.