I think you’re getting this exactly wrong (and this invalidates most of the OP). If you find a model that has a constant factor of 100 in the asymptotics that’s a huge deal if everything else has log scaling. That would already present discontinuous progress and potentially put you at ASI right away.
Basically the current scaling laws, if they keep holding are a lower bound on the expected progress and can’t really give you any information to upper bound it.
I think you’re getting this exactly wrong (and this invalidates most of the OP). If you find a model that has a constant factor of 100 in the asymptotics that’s a huge deal if everything else has log scaling. That would already present discontinuous progress and potentially put you at ASI right away.
Basically the current scaling laws, if they keep holding are a lower bound on the expected progress and can’t really give you any information to upper bound it.