Well the point of saying “significant AI presence” was “it will have mattered”. I think that includes AI driven R&D. (It also includes things like “are the first AIs plugged into systems they get a lot of opportunity to manipulate from an early stage” and “the first AI is in a more multipolar-ish scenario and doesn’t get decisive strategic advantage.”)
I agree we haven’t seen much AI driven R&D yet (although I think there’s been at least slight coding speedups from pre-o1 copilot, like 5% or 10%, and I think o1 is on track to be fairly significant, and I expect to start seeing more meaningful AI-driven R&D within a year or so).
[edit: Logan’s argument about synthetic data was compelling to me at least at first glance, although I don’t know a ton about it and can imagine learning more and changing my mind again]
Well the point of saying “significant AI presence” was “it will have mattered”. I think that includes AI driven R&D. (It also includes things like “are the first AIs plugged into systems they get a lot of opportunity to manipulate from an early stage” and “the first AI is in a more multipolar-ish scenario and doesn’t get decisive strategic advantage.”)
I agree we haven’t seen much AI driven R&D yet (although I think there’s been at least slight coding speedups from pre-o1 copilot, like 5% or 10%, and I think o1 is on track to be fairly significant, and I expect to start seeing more meaningful AI-driven R&D within a year or so).
[edit: Logan’s argument about synthetic data was compelling to me at least at first glance, although I don’t know a ton about it and can imagine learning more and changing my mind again]