Possibly people overall are just better calibrated than I thought.
Note that the relevant reference class is not “people overall”; at the risk of overfitting, I’d say it should be something closer to “people who are mathematically literate, habitually make tons of predictions, and are at least aware of the concept of calibration”. It is far less surprising (though still surprising, I think) that a member of this group is this well calibrated.
It’s nice to see that Katja is pretty well calibrated. Congratulations to her!
I remember listening to a podcast that had Daniel Khaneman on as a guest. The host asked Daniel (paraphrasing) ‘Hey, so people have all these biases that keep them from reasoning correctly. What could I do do to correct them?‘, and Daniel responded ‘Oh, there’s no hope there. You’re just along for the ride, system 1 is going to do whatever it wants’ and I just felt so defeated. There’s really no hope? There’s not a way that we might think more clearly. I take this as a pretty big success, and a nice counterexample to Danny’s claim that people are irredeemably irrational.
Note that the relevant reference class is not “people overall”; at the risk of overfitting, I’d say it should be something closer to “people who are mathematically literate, habitually make tons of predictions, and are at least aware of the concept of calibration”. It is far less surprising (though still surprising, I think) that a member of this group is this well calibrated.
It’s nice to see that Katja is pretty well calibrated. Congratulations to her!
I remember listening to a podcast that had Daniel Khaneman on as a guest. The host asked Daniel (paraphrasing) ‘Hey, so people have all these biases that keep them from reasoning correctly. What could I do do to correct them?‘, and Daniel responded ‘Oh, there’s no hope there. You’re just along for the ride, system 1 is going to do whatever it wants’ and I just felt so defeated. There’s really no hope? There’s not a way that we might think more clearly. I take this as a pretty big success, and a nice counterexample to Danny’s claim that people are irredeemably irrational.
“Speak for yourself, Danny!”