I’m not sure I know where you’re getting this from. Aren’t there a lot fewer than a million books published each year?
A lot depends on what the definition of “best seller” is. Are we talking about NYT best seller? How many weeks on the list? There are 52 weeks in the year and 10 slots on the list for each of fiction and nonfiction.
There’s at least one LW member whose first nonfiction book was an international bestseller, and I’d say it’s pretty likely that his second (released this month) will do the same.
I think that what your Twilight/Fifty Shades examples are referring to would be more accurately described as “cultural phenomena”, rather than mere bestsellers. Bestsellers happen every week.
I’m not sure I know where you’re getting this from. Aren’t there a lot fewer than a million books published each year?
Absolutely not. In the UNESCO figures, the USA hits >300k new books a year and a global total of >2.2m new books a year. Estimates sourced from Bowkers (in charge of ISBNs) using a less restrictive definition put it at 3 million, in the USA alone.
the USA hits >300k new books a year and a global total of >2.2m new books a year
So, in any given market for books, there are a lot less than a million published each year. 300k/520 opportunities to be a bestseller = better than 1:1000 odds.
Note that an “international bestseller” doesn’t mean a book is in the top worldwide, it means that it was a bestseller in more than one country. So nobody’s trying to rank out of the 2.2m/year.
So, in any given market for books, there are a lot less than a million published each year. 300k/520 opportunities to be a bestseller = better than 1:1000 odds.
That doesn’t follow. To make the obvious points, books published the previous years (~300m possibilities) are also competing for space on the bestsellers list by means fair and foul (see the Church of Scientology), and books can also spend many weeks on the bestseller list, using up even more slots (not sure where your 520 number is coming from).
10 slots on a list times 52 weeks in a year. While the other issues you mention are relevant, they are at least somewhat balanced by there being more than one best seller list in existence, many with a smaller pool of candidates than the NYT list.
somewhat balanced by there being more than one best seller list in existence
Somewhat. Not much. There are books that spend months or years on the bestsellers (eg. Fifty Shades of Grey), and just one of these books alone will blow away an entire tenth of the entire pool for that bestseller list—and then there are the sequels or spinoffs or licensees of existing franchises like Star Wars or Star Trek or Dune or Twilight...
many with a smaller pool of candidates than the NYT list.
That’s not a point in favor because it means that you will have a hard time getting into those pools. It’s only useful if you know in advance that you can get into them.
Aren’t there a lot fewer than a million books published each year?
Indeed, most aspiring authors never get published, unless you count self-kindling on Amazon or similar. But it does look like one-in-a-million odds was an exaggeration.
From Wikipedia: some 200k books are published in the US every year, less than 1% of those become bestsellers. From other sources: manuscript acceptance rate by major publishers (who produce the vast majority of bestsellers) is around 1%. So the prior is something like 1:10000 to start with. Probably close to 1:1000 after you filter out most of the obvious crap that gets submitted. Maybe these are worthwhile odds for you, I don’t know. If so, good luck, you’ll need it.
Probably close to 1:1000 after you filter out most of the obvious crap that gets submitted. Maybe these are worthwhile odds for you, I don’t know. If so, good luck, you’ll need it.
Fiction vs. non-fiction makes a huge difference in luck vs. skill.
For non-fiction, the relevant skill of course is marketing, not writing. Where “marketing” includes such subskills as defining a topic and/or title that people will actually buy, and planning how to market the book before spending time on actually writing it. (Tim Ferriss, for example, determined the title of “The Four-Hour Workweek” by empirical testing using Google Adwords.)
Note too that professional authors do not simply write books and send them to publishers; they write proposals… which to be accepted generally require evidence of the aforementioned marketing work.
(All this being said, I have zero expertise in the fiction book business; it may be that there are more ways to convert luck to skill than I am aware of in that department as well. Certainly there are ways to manipulate sales there, build a brand, accumulate a following, etc.)
I already mentioned a fellow LWer who I expect to have another bestseller soon; I feel confident predicting it because I know his marketing skill, available endorsement sources, personal platform, and how hard he’s been working the tour circuit while the book was still in pre-sales. I will be very surprised if the book doesn’t attain “bestseller” status on at least one bestseller list soon.
(Do remember that “bestseller” does not automatically equal “cultural phenomenon”. There are thousands of “bestsellers” in the US alone each year, and most of them are books you have never, ever heard of, and quite possibly never will.)
Anyway, one of the most relevant factors in determining an author’s marketing strength is the size of their “platform”, and it’s relevant for both fiction and non-fiction. A platform is basically how many people the author can reach, as far as personal influence to purchase. The term comes from the notion of platform speaking, i.e., influence by getting up on stage and talking to people. So a person who is on a lecture circuit, or better yet has their own TV or radio show, or fan club, etc., has more built-in bestseller power than someone who does not. Email lists, podcast subscribers, forum followers… any number of such things count.
Platform size is relevant because really, this is the main group of people who will buy the book, i.e., people who have become fans of the author, even if they are fans for some reason unrelated to writing. Most books are scarcely advertised at all, and are thus almost entirely dependent on the author to create demand. (Which is why an existing platform and willingness to work the publicity circuit are part of publishers’ acceptance criteria.)
So… if somebody doesn’t know and take into consideration at least as much information about book sales as I have listed above, they would indeed require a great deal of luck to be successful. OTOH, somebody like Eliezer or the other LW author I mentioned (who have large platforms of fans who they can easily reach) can have bestsellers with a lot less luck required, assuming the topic is one that has appeal to their platform. Indeed, with a sufficiently large platform, one can have a bestseller on some lists (e.g. some of Amazon’s lists) simply by co-ordinating the timing of fans’ purchases.
I’m not sure I know where you’re getting this from. Aren’t there a lot fewer than a million books published each year?
A lot depends on what the definition of “best seller” is. Are we talking about NYT best seller? How many weeks on the list? There are 52 weeks in the year and 10 slots on the list for each of fiction and nonfiction.
There’s at least one LW member whose first nonfiction book was an international bestseller, and I’d say it’s pretty likely that his second (released this month) will do the same.
I think that what your Twilight/Fifty Shades examples are referring to would be more accurately described as “cultural phenomena”, rather than mere bestsellers. Bestsellers happen every week.
Absolutely not. In the UNESCO figures, the USA hits >300k new books a year and a global total of >2.2m new books a year. Estimates sourced from Bowkers (in charge of ISBNs) using a less restrictive definition put it at 3 million, in the USA alone.
So, in any given market for books, there are a lot less than a million published each year. 300k/520 opportunities to be a bestseller = better than 1:1000 odds.
Note that an “international bestseller” doesn’t mean a book is in the top worldwide, it means that it was a bestseller in more than one country. So nobody’s trying to rank out of the 2.2m/year.
That doesn’t follow. To make the obvious points, books published the previous years (~300m possibilities) are also competing for space on the bestsellers list by means fair and foul (see the Church of Scientology), and books can also spend many weeks on the bestseller list, using up even more slots (not sure where your 520 number is coming from).
10 slots on a list times 52 weeks in a year. While the other issues you mention are relevant, they are at least somewhat balanced by there being more than one best seller list in existence, many with a smaller pool of candidates than the NYT list.
Somewhat. Not much. There are books that spend months or years on the bestsellers (eg. Fifty Shades of Grey), and just one of these books alone will blow away an entire tenth of the entire pool for that bestseller list—and then there are the sequels or spinoffs or licensees of existing franchises like Star Wars or Star Trek or Dune or Twilight...
That’s not a point in favor because it means that you will have a hard time getting into those pools. It’s only useful if you know in advance that you can get into them.
Indeed, most aspiring authors never get published, unless you count self-kindling on Amazon or similar. But it does look like one-in-a-million odds was an exaggeration.
From Wikipedia: some 200k books are published in the US every year, less than 1% of those become bestsellers. From other sources: manuscript acceptance rate by major publishers (who produce the vast majority of bestsellers) is around 1%. So the prior is something like 1:10000 to start with. Probably close to 1:1000 after you filter out most of the obvious crap that gets submitted. Maybe these are worthwhile odds for you, I don’t know. If so, good luck, you’ll need it.
Fiction vs. non-fiction makes a huge difference in luck vs. skill.
For non-fiction, the relevant skill of course is marketing, not writing. Where “marketing” includes such subskills as defining a topic and/or title that people will actually buy, and planning how to market the book before spending time on actually writing it. (Tim Ferriss, for example, determined the title of “The Four-Hour Workweek” by empirical testing using Google Adwords.)
Note too that professional authors do not simply write books and send them to publishers; they write proposals… which to be accepted generally require evidence of the aforementioned marketing work.
(All this being said, I have zero expertise in the fiction book business; it may be that there are more ways to convert luck to skill than I am aware of in that department as well. Certainly there are ways to manipulate sales there, build a brand, accumulate a following, etc.)
I already mentioned a fellow LWer who I expect to have another bestseller soon; I feel confident predicting it because I know his marketing skill, available endorsement sources, personal platform, and how hard he’s been working the tour circuit while the book was still in pre-sales. I will be very surprised if the book doesn’t attain “bestseller” status on at least one bestseller list soon.
(Do remember that “bestseller” does not automatically equal “cultural phenomenon”. There are thousands of “bestsellers” in the US alone each year, and most of them are books you have never, ever heard of, and quite possibly never will.)
Anyway, one of the most relevant factors in determining an author’s marketing strength is the size of their “platform”, and it’s relevant for both fiction and non-fiction. A platform is basically how many people the author can reach, as far as personal influence to purchase. The term comes from the notion of platform speaking, i.e., influence by getting up on stage and talking to people. So a person who is on a lecture circuit, or better yet has their own TV or radio show, or fan club, etc., has more built-in bestseller power than someone who does not. Email lists, podcast subscribers, forum followers… any number of such things count.
Platform size is relevant because really, this is the main group of people who will buy the book, i.e., people who have become fans of the author, even if they are fans for some reason unrelated to writing. Most books are scarcely advertised at all, and are thus almost entirely dependent on the author to create demand. (Which is why an existing platform and willingness to work the publicity circuit are part of publishers’ acceptance criteria.)
So… if somebody doesn’t know and take into consideration at least as much information about book sales as I have listed above, they would indeed require a great deal of luck to be successful. OTOH, somebody like Eliezer or the other LW author I mentioned (who have large platforms of fans who they can easily reach) can have bestsellers with a lot less luck required, assuming the topic is one that has appeal to their platform. Indeed, with a sufficiently large platform, one can have a bestseller on some lists (e.g. some of Amazon’s lists) simply by co-ordinating the timing of fans’ purchases.