I understand this, though I hadn’t thought of it with such clear terminology. I think the point Jonah was making was that in many cases, people are talking about propensities/frequencies when they refer to probabilities. So it’s not so much that Jonah or I are confusing epistemic probabilities with propensities/frequencies, it’s that many people use the term “probability” to refer to the latter. With language used this way, the probability distribution for this model parameter can be called the “probability distribution of the probability estimate.” If you reserve the term probability exclusive to epistemic probability (degree of belief) then this would constitute an abuse of language.
Sure, I don’t want to suggest we only use the word ‘probability’ for epistemic probabilities (although the world might be a better place if we did...), only that if we use the word to mean different sorts of probabilities in the same sentence, or even whole body of text, without explicit clarification, then it is just asking for confusion.
I understand this, though I hadn’t thought of it with such clear terminology. I think the point Jonah was making was that in many cases, people are talking about propensities/frequencies when they refer to probabilities. So it’s not so much that Jonah or I are confusing epistemic probabilities with propensities/frequencies, it’s that many people use the term “probability” to refer to the latter. With language used this way, the probability distribution for this model parameter can be called the “probability distribution of the probability estimate.” If you reserve the term probability exclusive to epistemic probability (degree of belief) then this would constitute an abuse of language.
Sure, I don’t want to suggest we only use the word ‘probability’ for epistemic probabilities (although the world might be a better place if we did...), only that if we use the word to mean different sorts of probabilities in the same sentence, or even whole body of text, without explicit clarification, then it is just asking for confusion.