Are you saying that people can’t deal with regular probability theory, but can deal with two-level “probabilities of probabilities”?
Not in full generality. There may be instances though. I don’t know how to articulate my intuitions here, without going into examples that are sufficiently involved so that they’d derail the conversation. If nothing else, it’s true that a probability estimate does not suffice to capture the knowledge that one has about an event and that one can better use probabilities as an input into one’s epistemology if one keeps this in mind.
Not in full generality. There may be instances though. I don’t know how to articulate my intuitions here, without going into examples that are sufficiently involved so that they’d derail the conversation. If nothing else, it’s true that a probability estimate does not suffice to capture the knowledge that one has about an event and that one can better use probabilities as an input into one’s epistemology if one keeps this in mind.