P(voluntary human extinction by replacement | any AGI at all) = 90%+
Hmm. Information theoretic extinction seems pretty unlikely to me. Humanity will live on in the history “books” about major transitions—and the “books” at that stage will no doubt be pretty fancy—with multiple “instantiated” humans.
P(involuntary human extinction without replacement | badly done AGI type (a)) = < 10^-20
I don’t think that’s very likely either, but 10^-20 seems to be an overconfident probability for it.
And even if I were to rank them, extinction by comet, asteroid or cosmological gamma ray burst vastly outranks any manmade cause. Even extinction by supervolcano vastly outranks any manmade cause.
A rather bizarre view, IMHO. I think that only a few would agree with this.
Hmm. Information theoretic extinction seems pretty unlikely to me. Humanity will live on in the history “books” about major transitions—and the “books” at that stage will no doubt be pretty fancy—with multiple “instantiated” humans.
I don’t think that’s very likely either, but 10^-20 seems to be an overconfident probability for it.
A rather bizarre view, IMHO. I think that only a few would agree with this.