Priors can’t go arbitrarily high before the sum over incompatible propositions becomes greater than 1.
If we were to copy your brain a trillion times over and ask it to give your “broadly distributed” priors for various mutually incompatible and very specific propositions, the result should sum to 1 (or less than 1 if its non exhaustive), which means that most propositions should receive very, very low priors. I strongly suspect that it wouldn’t be even remotely the case—you’ll be given a proposition, then you can’t be sure it’s wrong “because the world of future would look strange”, and so you give it some prior heavily biased towards 0.5 , and then over all the propositions, the summ will be very huge .
When you’re making very specific stuff up about what the world of 6000 years from now will look like, it’s necessarily quite unlikely that you’re right and quite likely that you’re wrong, precisely because that future would seem strange. That the future is unpredictable works against specific visions of the future.
Priors can’t go arbitrarily high before the sum over incompatible propositions becomes greater than 1.
If we were to copy your brain a trillion times over and ask it to give your “broadly distributed” priors for various mutually incompatible and very specific propositions, the result should sum to 1 (or less than 1 if its non exhaustive), which means that most propositions should receive very, very low priors. I strongly suspect that it wouldn’t be even remotely the case—you’ll be given a proposition, then you can’t be sure it’s wrong “because the world of future would look strange”, and so you give it some prior heavily biased towards 0.5 , and then over all the propositions, the summ will be very huge .
When you’re making very specific stuff up about what the world of 6000 years from now will look like, it’s necessarily quite unlikely that you’re right and quite likely that you’re wrong, precisely because that future would seem strange. That the future is unpredictable works against specific visions of the future.