Interesting: Is there a story as to why that is the case? One guess that springs to mind is that market performance in sectors is always correlated, but you don’t see it in well functioning markets due to range restriction/tails-come-apart reasons, but you do see it when things go badly wrong as it reveals more of the range.
market performance in sectors is always correlated, but you don’t see it
The problem is the word “always”. If I interpret it to mean “over all possible time scales” then the claim is basically false; if I interpret it to mean “over the longest time scales” then the claim is true, but trivially so given that sector performances are sometimes correlated.
We won’t get to an explanation by just thinking about probability measures on stochastic processes. What’s needed here is a causal graph. The basic causal graph has the financial sector internally highly connected, with the vast majority of the connections between lenders/investors and debtors/investees passing through it. That, I think, is sufficient to explain the stylized fact in the grandparent (although of course financial researchers can and do find more to say).
Interesting: Is there a story as to why that is the case? One guess that springs to mind is that market performance in sectors is always correlated, but you don’t see it in well functioning markets due to range restriction/tails-come-apart reasons, but you do see it when things go badly wrong as it reveals more of the range.
The problem is the word “always”. If I interpret it to mean “over all possible time scales” then the claim is basically false; if I interpret it to mean “over the longest time scales” then the claim is true, but trivially so given that sector performances are sometimes correlated.
We won’t get to an explanation by just thinking about probability measures on stochastic processes. What’s needed here is a causal graph. The basic causal graph has the financial sector internally highly connected, with the vast majority of the connections between lenders/investors and debtors/investees passing through it. That, I think, is sufficient to explain the stylized fact in the grandparent (although of course financial researchers can and do find more to say).