If you sum over all explored X (and implicitly treat unexplored X as if they are zero probability) then you can be arbitrarily far from optimal Bayesian behavior.
See Fitelson’s “Bayesians sometimes cannot ignore even very implausible theories.”
http://fitelson.org/hiti.pdf
Thanks for that link. Good stuff.
If you sum over all explored X (and implicitly treat unexplored X as if they are zero probability) then you can be arbitrarily far from optimal Bayesian behavior.
See Fitelson’s “Bayesians sometimes cannot ignore even very implausible theories.”
http://fitelson.org/hiti.pdf
Thanks for that link. Good stuff.