A related view is that less advanced/more narrow AI will do be able to do a fair number of tasks, but not enough to create widespread technological unemployment until very late, when very advanced AI quite quickly causes lots of people to be unemployed.
One consideration is how long time it will take for people to actually start using new AI systems (it tends to take some time for new technologies to be widely used). I think that some have speculated that that time lag may be shortened as AI become more advanced (as AI becomes involved in the deployment of other AI systems).
I think it’s too quick to think of technological unemployment as the next problem we’ll be dealing with, and wilder issues as being much further down the line. By the time (or even before) we have AI that can truly replace every facet of what low-skill humans do, the “wild sci-fi” AI impacts could be the bigger concern.
A related view is that less advanced/more narrow AI will do be able to do a fair number of tasks, but not enough to create widespread technological unemployment until very late, when very advanced AI quite quickly causes lots of people to be unemployed.
One consideration is how long time it will take for people to actually start using new AI systems (it tends to take some time for new technologies to be widely used). I think that some have speculated that that time lag may be shortened as AI become more advanced (as AI becomes involved in the deployment of other AI systems).
Holden Karnofsky defends this view in his latest blog post.