johnswentworth comments on AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment

johnswentworth 23 Aug 2022 22:18 UTC
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That’s just generally how long relatively-complicated software engineering projects take. As a general rule, if a software project takes longer than 18 months, it’s because the engineers ran into unsolved fundamental research problems. (Or because of managerial incompetence/organizational dysfunction, but I’m assuming a reasonably competent team.)
- sudo 23 Aug 2022 23:02 UTC
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  . As a general rule, if a software project takes longer than 18 months, it’s because the engineers ran into unsolved fundamental research problems
  Shouldn’t 18 months be a upper bound, rather than your estimate, on the length of a software project then?
  - johnswentworth 23 Aug 2022 23:08 UTC
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    It is an upper bound. That’s why I said in the OP:
    (Really it probably takes less than 6 months, but planning fallacy and all that.)
    - sudo 23 Aug 2022 23:12 UTC
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      Ah, I see. Thanks.