I think that gathering arguments and evidence relevant to that question (and the more general question of “what kind of architecture will take off first?” or “what properties will the first architecture to take off have?”) is the main way that work on timelines actually provides value.
Uh, I feel the need to off-topically note this is also the primary way to accidentally feed the AI industry capability insights. Those won’t even have the format of illegible arcane theoretical results, they’d be just straightforward easy-to-check suggestions on how to improve extant architecture. If they’re also backed by empirical evidence, that’s your flashy demos stand-in right there.
Not saying it shouldn’t be done, but here be dragons.
Uh, I feel the need to off-topically note this is also the primary way to accidentally feed the AI industry capability insights. Those won’t even have the format of illegible arcane theoretical results, they’d be just straightforward easy-to-check suggestions on how to improve extant architecture. If they’re also backed by empirical evidence, that’s your flashy demos stand-in right there.
Not saying it shouldn’t be done, but here be dragons.