Correlationally this seems true, but causally it’s “which architecture takes off first?” which influences timelines, not vice versa.
Though I could imagine a different argument which says that timeline until the current architecture takes off (assuming it’s not superseded by some other architecture) is a key causal input to “which architecture takes off first?”. That argument I’d probably buy.
I definitely endorse the argument you’d buy, but I also endorse a broader one. My claim is that there is information which goes into timelines which is not just downstream of which architecture I think gets there first.
For example, if you told me that humanity loses the ability to make chips “tomorrow until forever” my timeline gets a lot longer in a way that isn’t just downstream of which architecture I think is going to happen first. That then changes which architectures I think are going to get there first (strongly away from DL) primarily by making my estimated timeline long enough for capabilities folks to discover some theoretically-more-efficient but far-from-implementable-today architectures.
Correlationally this seems true, but causally it’s “which architecture takes off first?” which influences timelines, not vice versa.
Though I could imagine a different argument which says that timeline until the current architecture takes off (assuming it’s not superseded by some other architecture) is a key causal input to “which architecture takes off first?”. That argument I’d probably buy.
I definitely endorse the argument you’d buy, but I also endorse a broader one. My claim is that there is information which goes into timelines which is not just downstream of which architecture I think gets there first.
For example, if you told me that humanity loses the ability to make chips “tomorrow until forever” my timeline gets a lot longer in a way that isn’t just downstream of which architecture I think is going to happen first. That then changes which architectures I think are going to get there first (strongly away from DL) primarily by making my estimated timeline long enough for capabilities folks to discover some theoretically-more-efficient but far-from-implementable-today architectures.