I think that gathering arguments and evidence relevant to that question . . . is the main way that work on timelines actually provides value.
I think policy people think timelines work is quite decision-relevant for them; I believe work on timelines mainly/largely provides value by informing their prioritization.
Relatedly, I sense some readers of this post will unintentionally do a motte-and-bailey with a motte of “timelines are mostly not strategically relevant to alignment research” and a bailey of “timelines are mostly not strategically relevant.”
Things like “buy all the chips/chip companies” still seem like they only depend on timelines on a very short timescale, like <5 years. Buy all the chips, and the chip companies will (1) raise prices (which I’d guess happens on a timescale of months) and (2) increase production (which I’d guess happens on a timescale of ~2 years). Buy the chip companies, and new companies will enter the market on a somewhat slower timescale, but I’d still guess it’s on the order of ~5 years. (Yes, I’ve heard people argue that replacing the full stack of Taiwan semi could take decades, but I don’t expect that the full stack would actually be bought in a “buy the chip companies” scenario, and “decades” seems unrealistically long anyway.)
None of this sounds like it depends on the difference between e.g. 30 years vs 100 years, though the most ambitious versions of such strategies could maybe be slightly more appealing on 10 year vs 30 year timelines. But really, we’d have to get down to ~5 before something like “buy the chip companies” starts to sound like a sufficiently clearly good idea that I’d expect anyone to seriously consider it.
I think policy people think timelines work is quite decision-relevant for them; I believe work on timelines mainly/largely provides value by informing their prioritization.
Relatedly, I sense some readers of this post will unintentionally do a motte-and-bailey with a motte of “timelines are mostly not strategically relevant to alignment research” and a bailey of “timelines are mostly not strategically relevant.”
What are the main strategic decisions policy people face right now, and how are timelines relevant to those decisions?
See Carl Shulman’s comments on https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SEqJoRL5Y8cypFasr/why-agi-timeline-research-discourse-might-be-overrated
Things like “buy all the chips/chip companies” still seem like they only depend on timelines on a very short timescale, like <5 years. Buy all the chips, and the chip companies will (1) raise prices (which I’d guess happens on a timescale of months) and (2) increase production (which I’d guess happens on a timescale of ~2 years). Buy the chip companies, and new companies will enter the market on a somewhat slower timescale, but I’d still guess it’s on the order of ~5 years. (Yes, I’ve heard people argue that replacing the full stack of Taiwan semi could take decades, but I don’t expect that the full stack would actually be bought in a “buy the chip companies” scenario, and “decades” seems unrealistically long anyway.)
None of this sounds like it depends on the difference between e.g. 30 years vs 100 years, though the most ambitious versions of such strategies could maybe be slightly more appealing on 10 year vs 30 year timelines. But really, we’d have to get down to ~5 before something like “buy the chip companies” starts to sound like a sufficiently clearly good idea that I’d expect anyone to seriously consider it.