I agree that that would probably be the reasonable thing to do at this point. However, that’s not actually what the Polymarket market has done—it’s still Disputed, and in fact Maduro has traded down to 81%.
And I think a large portion of the reason why this has happened is poor decision-making in how the question was initially worded.
Edited to add: Maduro is now down to 63% in the market, probably because the US government announced that it thinks his opponent won? No, that’s not an official Venezuelan source. But it seems to have moved the market anyway.
I agree that that would probably be the reasonable thing to do at this point. However, that’s not actually what the Polymarket market has done—it’s still Disputed, and in fact Maduro has traded down to 81%.
And I think a large portion of the reason why this has happened is poor decision-making in how the question was initially worded.
Edited to add: Maduro is now down to 63% in the market, probably because the US government announced that it thinks his opponent won? No, that’s not an official Venezuelan source. But it seems to have moved the market anyway.