In the Senate, there are 26 D and only 8 R up for re-election or replacement.
Worth noting that many of those Ds are in states that voted R in the most recent election. We should increase predicted probability they will lose now, and not be surprised or change our evaluation of evidence when it actually happens.
Yup. Key point here: no, the Democrats are not in any way likely to retake the senate in 2018, even if Donald Trump is conspicuously disappointing.
(If, as some have suggested might transpire, he is not so much “conspicuously disappointing” as “full-on fascist totalitarian dictator” then that might bring enough unpopularity to others in his party—but in that case I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the prospects for improving anything by voting, no matter what the result.)
Worth noting that many of those Ds are in states that voted R in the most recent election. We should increase predicted probability they will lose now, and not be surprised or change our evaluation of evidence when it actually happens.
Yup. Key point here: no, the Democrats are not in any way likely to retake the senate in 2018, even if Donald Trump is conspicuously disappointing.
(If, as some have suggested might transpire, he is not so much “conspicuously disappointing” as “full-on fascist totalitarian dictator” then that might bring enough unpopularity to others in his party—but in that case I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the prospects for improving anything by voting, no matter what the result.)