You think that with a relevant probability, major catastrophic events will happen that lead to situations in which traditional non-digital “prepper” skills are relevant,
and therefore, parents or families should invest a larger share of their own and their children’s time and resources into learning such skills,
compared to a world that was not “on the eve of AI”.
I’m not clear on what you mean by ‘relevant probability’, however, yes, I do think that we will see AGI within two decades, and with respect to AI,
P(massive job displacement) is high, perhaps 30-50%, P(millions die / acute catastrophe) is perhaps 3-6% and P(billions die / doom) is perhaps 0.2-0.5%
So, I’d say P(catastrophe) is not negligible and will likely slowly rise over time (so long as Information technology generally improves). If it does happened, I would not be surprised if governments take drastic action including potential broad blanket internet blackouts which would increase the value of certain non-IT skills.
I do worry about economic stability during any AI takeoff because the lack thereof could severely inhibit our ability to respond.
I think the term ‘prepper’ skills is a tad derogatory and perhaps simplistic, but I do believe that we are slowly loosing many of those skill sets that contribute to self-sufficiency and I do believe some skills associated with ‘prepping’ are valuable (i.e., basic first aid, CPR, orienteering, navigation, engineering, construction, carpentry, mechanical repair, basic agriculture, PPE, maintaining some food/water supply, etc.). Obviously, I am not talking about the more extreme fringes of prepping which becomes a different conversation.
I did not intend the word ‘prepper’ to be detogatory, but to be a word for ‘classical’ preparedness skills.
While I understand your risk assessment and it may be true that increasing societal risk makes such prepper skills more valuable, I think it neglects the problem that ‘digital’ skills, both for job qualifications and for disaster situations, may also become more valuable than before. As time is still only 24 hours a day, it is not clear how the ‘life preparedness curriculum’ composition should be different compared to, for example, growing up 20 years ago.
I try to summarize your position:
You think that with a relevant probability, major catastrophic events will happen that lead to situations in which traditional non-digital “prepper” skills are relevant,
and therefore, parents or families should invest a larger share of their own and their children’s time and resources into learning such skills,
compared to a world that was not “on the eve of AI”.
Right?
I’m not clear on what you mean by ‘relevant probability’, however, yes, I do think that we will see AGI within two decades, and with respect to AI,
P(massive job displacement) is high, perhaps 30-50%,
P(millions die / acute catastrophe) is perhaps 3-6% and
P(billions die / doom) is perhaps 0.2-0.5%
So, I’d say P(catastrophe) is not negligible and will likely slowly rise over time (so long as Information technology generally improves). If it does happened, I would not be surprised if governments take drastic action including potential broad blanket internet blackouts which would increase the value of certain non-IT skills.
I do worry about economic stability during any AI takeoff because the lack thereof could severely inhibit our ability to respond.
I think the term ‘prepper’ skills is a tad derogatory and perhaps simplistic, but I do believe that we are slowly loosing many of those skill sets that contribute to self-sufficiency and I do believe some skills associated with ‘prepping’ are valuable (i.e., basic first aid, CPR, orienteering, navigation, engineering, construction, carpentry, mechanical repair, basic agriculture, PPE, maintaining some food/water supply, etc.). Obviously, I am not talking about the more extreme fringes of prepping which becomes a different conversation.
I did not intend the word ‘prepper’ to be detogatory, but to be a word for ‘classical’ preparedness skills.
While I understand your risk assessment and it may be true that increasing societal risk makes such prepper skills more valuable, I think it neglects the problem that ‘digital’ skills, both for job qualifications and for disaster situations, may also become more valuable than before. As time is still only 24 hours a day, it is not clear how the ‘life preparedness curriculum’ composition should be different compared to, for example, growing up 20 years ago.