Right now it looks like your 19-21 scale corresponds to something like log(# of parameters) (basically every scaling graph with parameters you’ll see uses this as its x-axis). So it still requires exponential increase in inputs to drive a linear increase on that scale.
Oh yes, it’s very likely that inputs are also non-linear.
The non-linearity of outputs I was referring to though was the likelihood of “sharp” tasks that require near-human capability in multiple aspects to score anything non-negligible in evaluation.
Right now it looks like your 19-21 scale corresponds to something like log(# of parameters) (basically every scaling graph with parameters you’ll see uses this as its x-axis). So it still requires exponential increase in inputs to drive a linear increase on that scale.
Oh yes, it’s very likely that inputs are also non-linear.
The non-linearity of outputs I was referring to though was the likelihood of “sharp” tasks that require near-human capability in multiple aspects to score anything non-negligible in evaluation.