I agree that this is part of what confuses the discussion. This is why I have pointed out in previous discussions that in order to be really considering Newcomb / Smoking Lesion, you have to be honestly more convinced the million is in the box after choosing to take one, than you would have been if you had chosen both. Likewise, you have to be honestly more convinced that you have the lesion, after you choose to smoke, than you would have been if you did not. In practice people would tend not to change their minds about that, and therefore they should smoke and take both boxes.
I agree that this is part of what confuses the discussion. This is why I have pointed out in previous discussions that in order to be really considering Newcomb / Smoking Lesion, you have to be honestly more convinced the million is in the box after choosing to take one, than you would have been if you had chosen both. Likewise, you have to be honestly more convinced that you have the lesion, after you choose to smoke, than you would have been if you did not. In practice people would tend not to change their minds about that, and therefore they should smoke and take both boxes.
Some relevant discussion here.
Great, thank you!