Of course, there are rumors and claims that deep learning is hitting a wall, which seems important for your timelines if true.
Yes! Very exciting stuff. Twas an update towards longer timelines for me.
How much longer did your timelines get?
Maybe about a year longer? But then the METR R&D benchmark results came out around the same time and shortened them. Idk what to think now.
I wonder by what factor do you think automated AI R&D speeds up research? How large is the effective compute overhang made possible by the discovery of better architectures and training methods?
Of course, there are rumors and claims that deep learning is hitting a wall, which seems important for your timelines if true.
Yes! Very exciting stuff. Twas an update towards longer timelines for me.
How much longer did your timelines get?
Maybe about a year longer? But then the METR R&D benchmark results came out around the same time and shortened them. Idk what to think now.
I wonder by what factor do you think automated AI R&D speeds up research? How large is the effective compute overhang made possible by the discovery of better architectures and training methods?