Three straight lines on a log-log plotYo ho ho 3e23 FLOP!Predicting text taught quite a lotYo ho ho 3e23 FLOP!
Sing along! https://suno.com/song/35d62e76-eac7-4733-864d-d62104f4bfd0
Of course, there are rumors and claims that deep learning is hitting a wall, which seems important for your timelines if true.
Yes! Very exciting stuff. Twas an update towards longer timelines for me.
How much longer did your timelines get?
Maybe about a year longer? But then the METR R&D benchmark results came out around the same time and shortened them. Idk what to think now.
I wonder by what factor do you think automated AI R&D speeds up research? How large is the effective compute overhang made possible by the discovery of better architectures and training methods?
Three straight lines on a log-log plot
Yo ho ho 3e23 FLOP!
Predicting text taught quite a lot
Yo ho ho 3e23 FLOP!
(We are roughly around the 5-year anniversary of some very consequential discoveries)
Sing along! https://suno.com/song/35d62e76-eac7-4733-864d-d62104f4bfd0
Of course, there are rumors and claims that deep learning is hitting a wall, which seems important for your timelines if true.
Yes! Very exciting stuff. Twas an update towards longer timelines for me.
How much longer did your timelines get?
Maybe about a year longer? But then the METR R&D benchmark results came out around the same time and shortened them. Idk what to think now.
I wonder by what factor do you think automated AI R&D speeds up research? How large is the effective compute overhang made possible by the discovery of better architectures and training methods?