I think it’s tricky to do anything with this, without knowing the priors. It’s quite possible that there’s no new information in the Russia-Ukraine war, only a confirmation of the models that the CCP is using. I also think it probably doesn’t shift the probability by all that much—I suspect it will be a relevant political/public crisis (something that makes Taiwan need/want Chinese support visibly enough that China uses it as a reason for takeover) that triggers such a change, not just information about other reactions to vaguely-similar aggression.
I think it’s tricky to do anything with this, without knowing the priors. It’s quite possible that there’s no new information in the Russia-Ukraine war, only a confirmation of the models that the CCP is using. I also think it probably doesn’t shift the probability by all that much—I suspect it will be a relevant political/public crisis (something that makes Taiwan need/want Chinese support visibly enough that China uses it as a reason for takeover) that triggers such a change, not just information about other reactions to vaguely-similar aggression.