There’s also the weighting problem if you don’t know which arguments are already embedded in your prior. A strong argument that “feels” novel is likely something you should update on. A weak argument shouldn’t update you much even if it were novel, and there are so many of them that you may already have included it.
Relatedly, it’s hard to determine correlation among many weak arguments—in many cases, they’re just different aspects of the same weak argument, not independent things to update on.
Finally, it’s part of the identification of strong vs weak arguments. If it wasn’t MUCH harder to refute or discount, we wouldn’t call it a strong argument.
There’s also the weighting problem if you don’t know which arguments are already embedded in your prior. A strong argument that “feels” novel is likely something you should update on. A weak argument shouldn’t update you much even if it were novel, and there are so many of them that you may already have included it.
Relatedly, it’s hard to determine correlation among many weak arguments—in many cases, they’re just different aspects of the same weak argument, not independent things to update on.
Finally, it’s part of the identification of strong vs weak arguments. If it wasn’t MUCH harder to refute or discount, we wouldn’t call it a strong argument.