I think something based on prediction markets can counteract this kind of war-of-attrition strategy. There are two main advantages of this solution: (a) it requires users to stake their reputation on their claims, and so if you ever double down really really hard on something that’s obviously wrong, it will cost you a lot, and (b) in general prediction markets solve the problem of providing a cheap way to approximate a very expensive process if it’s obvious to everyone what the output of the very expensive process will be, which nullifies an entire swathe of bad-faith arguing techiques.
To avoid the Arbital failure mode, I think the right strategy is to (i) start simple and implement one feature at a time and see how it interacts with actual conversations (every successful complex system grows out of a simple one—maybe we can start with literally just a LW clone but the voting algorithm is entirely using the community notes algorithm), and (ii) for the people implementing the ideas to be basically the same people coming up with the ideas.
I think something based on prediction markets can counteract this kind of war-of-attrition strategy. There are two main advantages of this solution: (a) it requires users to stake their reputation on their claims, and so if you ever double down really really hard on something that’s obviously wrong, it will cost you a lot, and (b) in general prediction markets solve the problem of providing a cheap way to approximate a very expensive process if it’s obvious to everyone what the output of the very expensive process will be, which nullifies an entire swathe of bad-faith arguing techiques.
To avoid the Arbital failure mode, I think the right strategy is to (i) start simple and implement one feature at a time and see how it interacts with actual conversations (every successful complex system grows out of a simple one—maybe we can start with literally just a LW clone but the voting algorithm is entirely using the community notes algorithm), and (ii) for the people implementing the ideas to be basically the same people coming up with the ideas.