you should only base you decisions on the small amount of measure you actually affect.
But whether that small amount is increasing in time or not is very relevant to your decision (depending on how your theory treats measure in the first place).
Er no, you can still make choices that increase of decrease utility. It’s simply that the measure of the consequences of these choices keeps on increasing.
Suppose you are in a world with measure M and are choosing between A and B, where A results in world WA which includes an immediate effect worth 4 utilons per measure, and B results in world WB which includes a later effect at time T worth 3 utililons per measure. Suppose further that under your not-serious theory, at time T, random quantum fluctuations have added measure 10M to the worlds WA and WB. So your choice between A and B is a choice to either add measure M to world WA or world WB, so that choice A results in WA immediately having measure M worth 4M utililons and later at time T, WA having measure 11M (0 utilons) while WB has measure 10M (worth 30M utilons) for a total of 34M utilons, while choice B results in WB immediately having measure M, (worth 0 utilons), and at time T WA having measure 10M (worth 0 utilons) and WB having measure 11M (worth 33M utilons), so you choose A for 34M instead of B for 33M utilons, for the same reasons that without the non-serious theory, you would choose A for 4M utilons instead of B for 3M utilons. Your non-serious theory should not impact your decisions because your decisions do not control which worlds it adds measure to.
I was envisaging utilons being “consumed” at the time they were added (say people eating chocolate bars). So choosing A would add 4M utilons, and choosing B would add 33M utilons.
I was envisaging utilons being “consumed” at the time they were added (say people eating chocolate bars).
My example is entirely compatible with this.
So choosing A would add 4M utilons, and choosing B would add 33M utilons.
So the problem here is that you are not accounting for the fact that choosing A in the measure M world does not prevent the accumulation of measure 10M to world WB from quantum fluctuation. You get those 30M utilons whether you choose A or B, choosing A gets you an immediate 4M additional utilons, while choosing B gets you a deferred 3M utilons.
I am not sure what you mean by “logically incompatible worlds”, but if worlds WA and WB are the results of different available decisions of an agent embedded in a common precursor world, then they both follow the same laws of physics and just have their particles or whatever in different places, and in a quantum universe they just have different quantum states.
I may decide to go left or right at a crossroad. If I decide to go left (for good reasons, after thinking about it), then almost all of my measure will go left, apart from a tiny bit of measure that tunnels right for various reasons.
So if I decide on A, WB will exist, but only with the tiniest of measures.
Yes, that is how your decision gives your measure M to world WA or to world WB, but that shouldn’t affect accumulation of measure into later states of these worlds by quantum fluctuation, so both worlds still get measure 10M from that.
Unless you mean that quantum fluctuations into later states of the world are directed by the normal evolution of the earlier states, including your decision, in which case, this process would be adding measure (perhaps not quantum measure, but counting as decision theoretic measure in the same way) to the initial state of the world in which you make the decision (because it is another instance of the same causal chain, that is, it produces the same result for the same reasons), so you get all 10M of the quantum fluctuation measure right away, and choice A gives 44M utilons while B still gives 33M utilons.
My model was of gradual proportional increase in utility
Yes, my example shows a proportional increase in measure between two times, and is indifferent to the gradual increase between these times. If you think the gradual increase is important, please provide an example that illustrates this.
not absolute addition to every branch.
I have already explained why adding the measure to a single branch is incoherent in both the cases where the decision causes or does not cause selection of the branch that receives the measure.
I have already explained why adding the measure to a single branch is incoherent in both the cases where the decision causes or does not cause selection of the branch that receives the measure.
I don’t quite understand the point. I’m claiming that, for instance, if a branch has measure M at time 0, it will have measure 2M at time 1. i.e. it’s measure at time 1 is twice that at time 0. If measure splits into N+N’=M, then the branch with N will go to 2N and that with N’ will go to 2N’.
Are you claiming that a) this model is incoherent, or b) that this model does not entail what I’m claiming (that you should save for the future)?
Are you claiming that a) this model is incoherent, or b) that this model does not entail what I’m claiming (that you should save for the future)?
The basic model you described, even as alternative physics, is underspecified, and depending on how I try to steelman it so it is coherent, it doesn’t entail what you claim, and if I try to steelman it so it entails what you say, it isn’t coherent.
The big question is what worlds get to accumulate measure and why those particular worlds. If the answer is that all worlds accumulate measure, then the accumulation happens independently of your decision, so the effect should not impact your decision. If the answer is that the measure accumulation process looks somehow depends on what world your decision leads to, then the measure accumulation process in locating that world duplicates its causal structure, and by the globalized anti zombie principle, contains all the same conscious people as that world, so it adds to the worlds decision theoretical measure even before your model says it officially adds to its quantum measure (this is basically parallel to the argument for Many Worlds). What I think is incoherent is the idea that you can add measure to world state without adding measure to the process that selected that world state, which you try to do by supposing that your decision (and its intermediate effects) don’t cause the later accumulation of measure, yet the measure magically accumulates in the world that results from your decision. (To account for this, you would have to follow the probability to outside the thought experiment.)
It feels like this should all be obvious if you understand why p-zombies are incoherent, why Many Worlds is obviously correct, and how these are related.
Consider this setup: you decide whether to buy ice cream now or chocolate later (chocolate ice cream unfortunately not being an option). Your mind will go through various considerations and analyses, and will arrive at a definite conclusion.
However, it’s actually determined what your decision is—any Laplacian demon could deduce it from looking at your brain. It’s all pretty clear, and quantum events are not enough to derail it (barring very very low measure stochastic events). So from the universe’s perspective, you’re not choosing anything, not shifting measure from anything to anything.
But you can’t know your own decision before making it. So you have the impression of free will, and are using an appropriate decision theory. Most of these work “as if” your own decision determines which (logical) world will exist, and hence which world will get the increased measure. Or, if your prefer, you know that the world you decide on will get increased measure in the future, you are simply in ignorance of which one it will be. So you have to balance “ice cream before the increased measure” with “chocolate after the increased measure”, even though you know one of these is impossible.
However, it’s actually determined what your decision is—any Laplacian demon could deduce it from looking at your brain. It’s all pretty clear, and quantum events are not enough to derail it (barring very very low measure stochastic events). So from the universe’s perspective, you’re not choosing anything, not shifting measure from anything to anything.
The logical structure of my decision still controls what world gets the measure. From Timeless Control:
Surely, if you can determine the Future just by looking at the Past, there’s no need to look at the Present?
The problem with the right-side graph is twofold: First, it violates the beautiful locality of reality; we’re supposing causal relations that go outside the immediate neighborhoods of space/time/configuration. And second, you can’t compute the Future from the Past, except by also computing something that looks exactly like the Present; which computation just creates another copy of the Block Universe (if that statement even makes any sense), it does not affect any of the causal relations within it.
This is basically the same point as the one I keep making and you keep missing: The universe/Laplacian demon/whatever is adding quantum measure, in order to select the same world to add measure to that was selected by your decision, it has to duplicate the causal structure of your decision and the resulting world. (And since within this computation the same things happen for the same reasons as in the selected world, by the generalized anti zombie principle, the computation is adding measure to that world even at times before your model says it adds quantum measure.)
The universe/Laplacian demon/whatever is adding quantum measure, in order to select the same world to add measure to that was selected by your decision,
The demon is not adding quantum measure, or selecting anything. Every Everett branch is getting its measure multiplied—nobody’s choice determines where the measure goes.
At least, from the outside perspective, for someone who knows what everyone else’s choices are/will be (and whose own choices are not relevant), nobody’s choice is determining where the measure goes. From the insider perspective, for someone who doesn’t know their own decision—well, that depends on their decision theory, and how they treat measure.
But whether that small amount is increasing in time or not is very relevant to your decision (depending on how your theory treats measure in the first place).
My point was that under your assumptions, the amount you affect does not increase in time at all, only the amount you do not affect increases.
?
Er no, you can still make choices that increase of decrease utility. It’s simply that the measure of the consequences of these choices keeps on increasing.
Suppose you are in a world with measure M and are choosing between A and B, where A results in world WA which includes an immediate effect worth 4 utilons per measure, and B results in world WB which includes a later effect at time T worth 3 utililons per measure. Suppose further that under your not-serious theory, at time T, random quantum fluctuations have added measure 10M to the worlds WA and WB. So your choice between A and B is a choice to either add measure M to world WA or world WB, so that choice A results in WA immediately having measure M worth 4M utililons and later at time T, WA having measure 11M (0 utilons) while WB has measure 10M (worth 30M utilons) for a total of 34M utilons, while choice B results in WB immediately having measure M, (worth 0 utilons), and at time T WA having measure 10M (worth 0 utilons) and WB having measure 11M (worth 33M utilons), so you choose A for 34M instead of B for 33M utilons, for the same reasons that without the non-serious theory, you would choose A for 4M utilons instead of B for 3M utilons. Your non-serious theory should not impact your decisions because your decisions do not control which worlds it adds measure to.
I was envisaging utilons being “consumed” at the time they were added (say people eating chocolate bars). So choosing A would add 4M utilons, and choosing B would add 33M utilons.
My example is entirely compatible with this.
So the problem here is that you are not accounting for the fact that choosing A in the measure M world does not prevent the accumulation of measure 10M to world WB from quantum fluctuation. You get those 30M utilons whether you choose A or B, choosing A gets you an immediate 4M additional utilons, while choosing B gets you a deferred 3M utilons.
A and B could be logically incompatible worlds, not simply different branches of the multiverse.
I am not sure what you mean by “logically incompatible worlds”, but if worlds WA and WB are the results of different available decisions of an agent embedded in a common precursor world, then they both follow the same laws of physics and just have their particles or whatever in different places, and in a quantum universe they just have different quantum states.
I may decide to go left or right at a crossroad. If I decide to go left (for good reasons, after thinking about it), then almost all of my measure will go left, apart from a tiny bit of measure that tunnels right for various reasons.
So if I decide on A, WB will exist, but only with the tiniest of measures.
Yes, that is how your decision gives your measure M to world WA or to world WB, but that shouldn’t affect accumulation of measure into later states of these worlds by quantum fluctuation, so both worlds still get measure 10M from that.
Unless you mean that quantum fluctuations into later states of the world are directed by the normal evolution of the earlier states, including your decision, in which case, this process would be adding measure (perhaps not quantum measure, but counting as decision theoretic measure in the same way) to the initial state of the world in which you make the decision (because it is another instance of the same causal chain, that is, it produces the same result for the same reasons), so you get all 10M of the quantum fluctuation measure right away, and choice A gives 44M utilons while B still gives 33M utilons.
My model was of gradual proportional increase in utility, not absolute addition to every branch.
Yes, my example shows a proportional increase in measure between two times, and is indifferent to the gradual increase between these times. If you think the gradual increase is important, please provide an example that illustrates this.
I have already explained why adding the measure to a single branch is incoherent in both the cases where the decision causes or does not cause selection of the branch that receives the measure.
I don’t quite understand the point. I’m claiming that, for instance, if a branch has measure M at time 0, it will have measure 2M at time 1. i.e. it’s measure at time 1 is twice that at time 0. If measure splits into N+N’=M, then the branch with N will go to 2N and that with N’ will go to 2N’.
Are you claiming that a) this model is incoherent, or b) that this model does not entail what I’m claiming (that you should save for the future)?
The basic model you described, even as alternative physics, is underspecified, and depending on how I try to steelman it so it is coherent, it doesn’t entail what you claim, and if I try to steelman it so it entails what you say, it isn’t coherent.
The big question is what worlds get to accumulate measure and why those particular worlds. If the answer is that all worlds accumulate measure, then the accumulation happens independently of your decision, so the effect should not impact your decision. If the answer is that the measure accumulation process looks somehow depends on what world your decision leads to, then the measure accumulation process in locating that world duplicates its causal structure, and by the globalized anti zombie principle, contains all the same conscious people as that world, so it adds to the worlds decision theoretical measure even before your model says it officially adds to its quantum measure (this is basically parallel to the argument for Many Worlds). What I think is incoherent is the idea that you can add measure to world state without adding measure to the process that selected that world state, which you try to do by supposing that your decision (and its intermediate effects) don’t cause the later accumulation of measure, yet the measure magically accumulates in the world that results from your decision. (To account for this, you would have to follow the probability to outside the thought experiment.)
It feels like this should all be obvious if you understand why p-zombies are incoherent, why Many Worlds is obviously correct, and how these are related.
Consider this setup: you decide whether to buy ice cream now or chocolate later (chocolate ice cream unfortunately not being an option). Your mind will go through various considerations and analyses, and will arrive at a definite conclusion.
However, it’s actually determined what your decision is—any Laplacian demon could deduce it from looking at your brain. It’s all pretty clear, and quantum events are not enough to derail it (barring very very low measure stochastic events). So from the universe’s perspective, you’re not choosing anything, not shifting measure from anything to anything.
But you can’t know your own decision before making it. So you have the impression of free will, and are using an appropriate decision theory. Most of these work “as if” your own decision determines which (logical) world will exist, and hence which world will get the increased measure. Or, if your prefer, you know that the world you decide on will get increased measure in the future, you are simply in ignorance of which one it will be. So you have to balance “ice cream before the increased measure” with “chocolate after the increased measure”, even though you know one of these is impossible.
The logical structure of my decision still controls what world gets the measure. From Timeless Control:
This is basically the same point as the one I keep making and you keep missing: The universe/Laplacian demon/whatever is adding quantum measure, in order to select the same world to add measure to that was selected by your decision, it has to duplicate the causal structure of your decision and the resulting world. (And since within this computation the same things happen for the same reasons as in the selected world, by the generalized anti zombie principle, the computation is adding measure to that world even at times before your model says it adds quantum measure.)
The demon is not adding quantum measure, or selecting anything. Every Everett branch is getting its measure multiplied—nobody’s choice determines where the measure goes.
At least, from the outside perspective, for someone who knows what everyone else’s choices are/will be (and whose own choices are not relevant), nobody’s choice is determining where the measure goes. From the insider perspective, for someone who doesn’t know their own decision—well, that depends on their decision theory, and how they treat measure.
Do you also disagree with , http://lesswrong.com/lw/g9n/false_vacuum_the_universe_playing_quantum_suicide/ btw? Because that’s simply the same problem in reverse.