I’m not entirely convinced that distinction exists. I would say that in general if certain information (whether object-level information or background knowledge) is not readily available to most people, then insights requiring that information are not obvious from looking.
That said, I can imagine the distinction existing, and yet even if it does I don’t think “education in the US is Just Bad” is in the category “obvious from looking but most people just haven’t noticed”. “the value of higher education in the US has a large signaling component” is fairly obvious from looking (to people who have interacted with relevant parts of the education system and/or labor market), but “ALL or nearly all of the value of ALL or nearly all mainstream education in the US is from signaling”/”the public school system’s existence is net negative” is not obvious at all; if true (which I’m not really convinced of) it requires evidence to prove.
likewise it can be obvious from looking that one’s particular school experience was net positive or net negative, but generalizing from one example is a bad idea
(in my case it’s not clear whether my school experience was net positive or net negative, so nothing is obvious at all, honestly)
You might be right. I note the claim Benquo made was regarding marginal education, and that doesn’t require all of education to be bad, just all the extra qualifications that are trying to become the norm (i.e. qualification inflation). My hot take is that probably if most people looked at its effects in their own lives they’d judge it to be bad, yet they seem to not notice this when people chant the political slogans in favour of ‘a good education’.
I’m not entirely convinced that distinction exists. I would say that in general if certain information (whether object-level information or background knowledge) is not readily available to most people, then insights requiring that information are not obvious from looking.
That said, I can imagine the distinction existing, and yet even if it does I don’t think “education in the US is Just Bad” is in the category “obvious from looking but most people just haven’t noticed”. “the value of higher education in the US has a large signaling component” is fairly obvious from looking (to people who have interacted with relevant parts of the education system and/or labor market), but “ALL or nearly all of the value of ALL or nearly all mainstream education in the US is from signaling”/”the public school system’s existence is net negative” is not obvious at all; if true (which I’m not really convinced of) it requires evidence to prove.
likewise it can be obvious from looking that one’s particular school experience was net positive or net negative, but generalizing from one example is a bad idea
(in my case it’s not clear whether my school experience was net positive or net negative, so nothing is obvious at all, honestly)
You might be right. I note the claim Benquo made was regarding marginal education, and that doesn’t require all of education to be bad, just all the extra qualifications that are trying to become the norm (i.e. qualification inflation). My hot take is that probably if most people looked at its effects in their own lives they’d judge it to be bad, yet they seem to not notice this when people chant the political slogans in favour of ‘a good education’.