Wanted to write a more thoughtful reply to this, but basically yes, my best guess is that the benefits of informing the world are in expectation bigger than the negatives from acceleration. A potentially important background views is that I think takeoff speeds matter more than timelines, and it’s unclear to me how having FrontierMath affects takeoff speeds.
I wasn’t thinking much about the optics, but I’d guess that’s not a large effect. I agree that Epoch made a mistake here though and this is a negative.
I could imagine changing my mind somewhat easily,.
Agree that takeoff speeds are more important, and expect that FrontierMath has much less affect on takeoff speed. Still think timelines matter enough that the amount of relevantly informing people that you buy from this is likely not worth the cost, especially if the org is avoiding talking about risks in public and leadership isn’t focused on agentic takeover, so the info is not packaged with the info needed for that info to have the effects which would help.
Wanted to write a more thoughtful reply to this, but basically yes, my best guess is that the benefits of informing the world are in expectation bigger than the negatives from acceleration. A potentially important background views is that I think takeoff speeds matter more than timelines, and it’s unclear to me how having FrontierMath affects takeoff speeds.
I wasn’t thinking much about the optics, but I’d guess that’s not a large effect. I agree that Epoch made a mistake here though and this is a negative.
I could imagine changing my mind somewhat easily,.
Agree that takeoff speeds are more important, and expect that FrontierMath has much less affect on takeoff speed. Still think timelines matter enough that the amount of relevantly informing people that you buy from this is likely not worth the cost, especially if the org is avoiding talking about risks in public and leadership isn’t focused on agentic takeover, so the info is not packaged with the info needed for that info to have the effects which would help.