However, when I take a “disinterested altruism” point of view x-risk looms large: I would rather bring 100 trillion fantastic lives into being than improve the quality of life of a single malaria patient.
What’s your break even point for “bring 100 trillion fantastic lives into being with probability p” vs. “improve the quality of a single malaria patient” and why?
It depends on the context (probability distribution over number and locations and types of lives), with various complications I didn’t want to get into in a short comment.
Here’s a different way of phrasing things: if I could trade off probability p1 of increasing the income of everyone alive today (but not providing lasting benefits into the far future) to at least $1,000 per annum with basic Western medicine for control of infectious disease, against probability p2 of a great long-term posthuman future with colonization, I would prefer p2 even if it was many times smaller than p1. Note that those in absolute poverty are a minority of current people, a tiny minority of the people who have lived on Earth so far, their life expectancy is a large fraction of that of the rich, and so forth.
What’s your break even point for “bring 100 trillion fantastic lives into being with probability p” vs. “improve the quality of a single malaria patient” and why?
It depends on the context (probability distribution over number and locations and types of lives), with various complications I didn’t want to get into in a short comment.
Here’s a different way of phrasing things: if I could trade off probability p1 of increasing the income of everyone alive today (but not providing lasting benefits into the far future) to at least $1,000 per annum with basic Western medicine for control of infectious disease, against probability p2 of a great long-term posthuman future with colonization, I would prefer p2 even if it was many times smaller than p1. Note that those in absolute poverty are a minority of current people, a tiny minority of the people who have lived on Earth so far, their life expectancy is a large fraction of that of the rich, and so forth.