What leads you to suggest Aumann isn’t thinking that?
That I’ve met smart religious people who don’t think that way, and I expect that Aumann is at least as smart as they are.
There are intellectual religious people who believe that they’ve updated on all the evidence, taken it all into account, ignored none of it, and concluded that, say, Young Earth Creationism is the best account of the evidence.
You and I can see that they are ignoring evidence, or failing to weigh it properly, and that their ideology is blinding them. But that is not their own account of what’s going on in their heads. They are not aware of any conscious decision on their part to ignore evidence. So it’s subtle and tricky to unpack what it means for them to be “capable but unwilling” to update.
ETA: Your unpacking of “capable but unwilling” uses the word “ability”, which does not illuminate the meaning of “capable”. And you’ve used the phrase “convincing evidence” in a sense that clearly does not mean that the evidence did in fact convince them. So, additionally tabooing “ability” and “convincing”, what does “capable but unwilling” mean?
That I’ve met smart religious people who don’t think that way, and I expect that Aumann is at least as smart as they are.
There are intellectual religious people who believe that they’ve updated on all the evidence, taken it all into account, ignored none of it, and concluded that, say, Young Earth Creationism is the best account of the evidence.
You and I can see that they are ignoring evidence, or failing to weigh it properly, and that their ideology is blinding them. But that is not their own account of what’s going on in their heads. They are not aware of any conscious decision on their part to ignore evidence. So it’s subtle and tricky to unpack what it means for them to be “capable but unwilling” to update.
ETA: Your unpacking of “capable but unwilling” uses the word “ability”, which does not illuminate the meaning of “capable”. And you’ve used the phrase “convincing evidence” in a sense that clearly does not mean that the evidence did in fact convince them. So, additionally tabooing “ability” and “convincing”, what does “capable but unwilling” mean?