It is plausible that technological and political progress might get it to fulfilling all Sustainable Development Goal
This seems highly implausible to me. The technological progress and economic growth trend is really an illusion. We are already slowly trending in the wrong direction. The U.S. is an exception and all countries are headed towards Japan or Europe. Many of those countries have declined since 2010 or so.
If you plotted trends from the Roman Empire but ignored the same population decline/institutional decay from them we should have reached technological goals a long time ago.
If you have a source on the Roman Empire, I’d be interested. Both in just descriptions of trends and in rigorous causal analysis. I’ve heard somewhere that there was population growth-rate decline in the Roman Empire below replacement level, which doesn’t seem to fit with all the claims about the causes of population growth-rate decline I heard in my life.
This is a reconstruction of Roman GDP per capita. Source of image. There is ~200 years of quick growth followed by a long and slow decline. I think it’s clear to me we could be in the year 26, extrapolating past trends without looking at the 2nd derivative. I can’t find a source of fertility rates, but child mortality rates were much higher then so the bar for fertility rates was also much higher.
For posterity, I’ll add Japan’s gdp per capita. Similar graphs exist for many of the other countries I mention. I think this is a better and more direct example anyways.
This seems highly implausible to me. The technological progress and economic growth trend is really an illusion. We are already slowly trending in the wrong direction. The U.S. is an exception and all countries are headed towards Japan or Europe. Many of those countries have declined since 2010 or so.
If you plotted trends from the Roman Empire but ignored the same population decline/institutional decay from them we should have reached technological goals a long time ago.
If you have a source on the Roman Empire, I’d be interested. Both in just descriptions of trends and in rigorous causal analysis. I’ve heard somewhere that there was population growth-rate decline in the Roman Empire below replacement level, which doesn’t seem to fit with all the claims about the causes of population growth-rate decline I heard in my life.
This is a reconstruction of Roman GDP per capita. Source of image. There is ~200 years of quick growth followed by a long and slow decline. I think it’s clear to me we could be in the year 26, extrapolating past trends without looking at the 2nd derivative. I can’t find a source of fertility rates, but child mortality rates were much higher then so the bar for fertility rates was also much higher.
For posterity, I’ll add Japan’s gdp per capita. Similar graphs exist for many of the other countries I mention. I think this is a better and more direct example anyways.