If you have a source on the Roman Empire, I’d be interested. Both in just descriptions of trends and in rigorous causal analysis. I’ve heard somewhere that there was population growth-rate decline in the Roman Empire below replacement level, which doesn’t seem to fit with all the claims about the causes of population growth-rate decline I heard in my life.
This is a reconstruction of Roman GDP per capita. Source of image. There is ~200 years of quick growth followed by a long and slow decline. I think it’s clear to me we could be in the year 26, extrapolating past trends without looking at the 2nd derivative. I can’t find a source of fertility rates, but child mortality rates were much higher then so the bar for fertility rates was also much higher.
For posterity, I’ll add Japan’s gdp per capita. Similar graphs exist for many of the other countries I mention. I think this is a better and more direct example anyways.
If you have a source on the Roman Empire, I’d be interested. Both in just descriptions of trends and in rigorous causal analysis. I’ve heard somewhere that there was population growth-rate decline in the Roman Empire below replacement level, which doesn’t seem to fit with all the claims about the causes of population growth-rate decline I heard in my life.
This is a reconstruction of Roman GDP per capita. Source of image. There is ~200 years of quick growth followed by a long and slow decline. I think it’s clear to me we could be in the year 26, extrapolating past trends without looking at the 2nd derivative. I can’t find a source of fertility rates, but child mortality rates were much higher then so the bar for fertility rates was also much higher.
For posterity, I’ll add Japan’s gdp per capita. Similar graphs exist for many of the other countries I mention. I think this is a better and more direct example anyways.