Will a halt in new science undercut our ability to deal with those disasters to a greater extent than it makes those disasters more likely? What if the halt was only in certain domains, life genetic engineering of deadly viruses?
There’s no reason to believe that we’ve reached the optimum point for ending scientific research in any particular field. If we’d stopped medical research in 1900, the 1918 flu pandemic would have been worse. And basic research doesn’t have a label telling us how it’s going to be useful, yet the evidence is pretty strong that basic research is worth the money.
Regarding your specific example, isn’t it worth knowing that the mutations to make that virus (1) already exist in nature, and (2) aren’t really that far from being naturally incorporated into a single virus. If it took 500 passes instead of 10, we’d be relieved to learn that, right? In short, it seems like this kind of research is likely to be of practical use in treating serious flu virii (spelling?) in the relatively near future.
The question is not “Is it useful?” but “Is it useful enough to justify the risk?” In that case, the answer might well be yes, but there will probably be cases in the future where the knowledge is not worth the risk.
I agree that you have identified the right question. I disagree with you on when the balance shifts. In particular, I think you’ve picked a bad example of “dangerous” research, because I don’t think the virus research you identified is a close question.
Will a halt in new science undercut our ability to deal with those disasters to a greater extent than it makes those disasters more likely? What if the halt was only in certain domains, life genetic engineering of deadly viruses?
There’s no reason to believe that we’ve reached the optimum point for ending scientific research in any particular field. If we’d stopped medical research in 1900, the 1918 flu pandemic would have been worse. And basic research doesn’t have a label telling us how it’s going to be useful, yet the evidence is pretty strong that basic research is worth the money.
Regarding your specific example, isn’t it worth knowing that the mutations to make that virus (1) already exist in nature, and (2) aren’t really that far from being naturally incorporated into a single virus. If it took 500 passes instead of 10, we’d be relieved to learn that, right? In short, it seems like this kind of research is likely to be of practical use in treating serious flu virii (spelling?) in the relatively near future.
The question is not “Is it useful?” but “Is it useful enough to justify the risk?” In that case, the answer might well be yes, but there will probably be cases in the future where the knowledge is not worth the risk.
I agree that you have identified the right question. I disagree with you on when the balance shifts. In particular, I think you’ve picked a bad example of “dangerous” research, because I don’t think the virus research you identified is a close question.
(That said, not my downvotes)
Upon further research, you’re right. The research appears not to be as dangerous as it seemed at first glance.