People are different. Few interventions (including chemical) work for literally everyone—e.g. some people just don’t react to common drugs or react in a way which the doctors politely call “paradoxical”. So even in theory p/s might work for some but not all people.
It seems to me that the closest analogy is diet. Take low-carb—does it “work”? The answer is: it depends. It does wonders for some people, does nothing for others, and screws up the third bunch. Unless you understand the mechanism by which it either works or doesn’t, all you can do is provide priors (e.g. works for 30%, does nothing for 60%, screws up 10% [fake numbers]) and say “try it and see if it works for you”.
I would want the same type of answer for the polyphasic sleep. What do you think are the baseline probabilities for, say, four potential outcomes?
OK, so basically you think that one in ten will benefit, nine in ten will suffer (and, presumably, revert back to “normal” sleep), and some small number will think it’s all the same. Hmm…
People are different. Few interventions (including chemical) work for literally everyone—e.g. some people just don’t react to common drugs or react in a way which the doctors politely call “paradoxical”. So even in theory p/s might work for some but not all people.
It seems to me that the closest analogy is diet. Take low-carb—does it “work”? The answer is: it depends. It does wonders for some people, does nothing for others, and screws up the third bunch. Unless you understand the mechanism by which it either works or doesn’t, all you can do is provide priors (e.g. works for 30%, does nothing for 60%, screws up 10% [fake numbers]) and say “try it and see if it works for you”.
I would want the same type of answer for the polyphasic sleep. What do you think are the baseline probabilities for, say, four potential outcomes?
Makes things noticeably better
Makes things a bit better
Makes no difference
Makes things worse
You’d have to be more specific. Probabilities if what kind of person attempts or succeeds to adapt which schedule?
No specifics. General population (or if you want, take the half above the median), and any polyphasic schedule.
8.5% – 1% – 0.5% – 90%
But those feel frustratingly uninformed
OK, so basically you think that one in ten will benefit, nine in ten will suffer (and, presumably, revert back to “normal” sleep), and some small number will think it’s all the same. Hmm…