I suspect the distributed manipuation of data—many small institutions having a selfish incentive to downplay Covid-19.
I heard a rumor (no way to verify it, but from two seemingly independent sources) that in some retirement homes (in Sweden and Austria), when old people started coughing, they were simply given painkillers and not tested for Covid-19. One of the sources thought it was negligence, another thought it was a part of a systematic coverup of Covid-19. But after reading your article, assuming that the rumors were based on facts, it seems more likely to me that in both cases the institutions simply followed their own selfish incentives—not to be seen as “the place with Covid-19” with possible corresponding bad consequences.
It seems to me that the best available estimate of Covid-19 deaths is to simply look at the difference between total deaths, and total deaths at the same time of a different year. Because we simply can’t trust how the deaths are classified, for various reasons. Though in some countries this methodology would lead us to believe that Covid-19 actually saved lives (fewer people died this year who otherwise would have died of flu).
I suspect the distributed manipuation of data—many small institutions having a selfish incentive to downplay Covid-19.
I heard a rumor (no way to verify it, but from two seemingly independent sources) that in some retirement homes (in Sweden and Austria), when old people started coughing, they were simply given painkillers and not tested for Covid-19. One of the sources thought it was negligence, another thought it was a part of a systematic coverup of Covid-19. But after reading your article, assuming that the rumors were based on facts, it seems more likely to me that in both cases the institutions simply followed their own selfish incentives—not to be seen as “the place with Covid-19” with possible corresponding bad consequences.
It seems to me that the best available estimate of Covid-19 deaths is to simply look at the difference between total deaths, and total deaths at the same time of a different year. Because we simply can’t trust how the deaths are classified, for various reasons. Though in some countries this methodology would lead us to believe that Covid-19 actually saved lives (fewer people died this year who otherwise would have died of flu).
Indeed, this was my assumption since April or so. Quantitative evidence is good though.