Some omens/disasters are clearly correlated with what happens next year, though I couldn’t find anything that stood out and made a given disaster nearly certain to happen this year. Some of the signs were also contradictory. I couldn’t find any additional clear cut pattern by looking at previous years, though given that several disasters come in clumps I wouldn’t be surprised if there was something to learn by looking for correlations > 1 year in the past. I suspect a complicated algorithm could need to be used to pull everything together to produce a highly accurate prediction, however my relatively simple analysis suggests that the following may not be too bad:
Interventions I am very confident are optimal: - Italia Famine Relief(10000Dn) - Grecia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)
Interventions that look reasonably likely to be optimal: - Hispania Famine relief(10000Dn) - Italia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)
Interventions that look moderately useful, but I suspect aren’t optimal: - Grecia Fire Prevention(10000Dn) - Hsipania Fire Prevention (10000Dn)
Some omens/disasters are clearly correlated with what happens next year, though I couldn’t find anything that stood out and made a given disaster nearly certain to happen this year. Some of the signs were also contradictory. I couldn’t find any additional clear cut pattern by looking at previous years, though given that several disasters come in clumps I wouldn’t be surprised if there was something to learn by looking for correlations > 1 year in the past. I suspect a complicated algorithm could need to be used to pull everything together to produce a highly accurate prediction, however my relatively simple analysis suggests that the following may not be too bad:
Interventions I am very confident are optimal:
- Italia Famine Relief(10000Dn)
- Grecia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)
Interventions that look reasonably likely to be optimal:
- Hispania Famine relief(10000Dn)
- Italia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)
Interventions that look moderately useful, but I suspect aren’t optimal:
- Grecia Fire Prevention(10000Dn)
- Hsipania Fire Prevention (10000Dn)